The World As We See It
Global
Uncertainty is the norm nowadays, and investors grapple with more and more of it as each day passes. Investors across asset classes are bewildered at the massive change in sentiment, rates and prices that have unleashed themselves over the last few quarters. Call it lack of conviction, participation exhaustion or utter confusion and chaos; we are amidst a volatile market that few can make sense of, let alone predict or lead. What a change from 2021 this has been! The last ten months have been all about dimming growth prospects on the back of supply chain disruptions, elevated commodity prices, the Russia-Ukraine war and the Chinese zero-tolerance policy against COVID. Several countries’ front-loaded normalisation of monetary policy in response to persistently rising inflation has contributed significantly to volatility in the global financial markets.
With this backdrop, the IMF1 estimated global growth to be at 4.4% in January 2022, a 0.5% drop from its earlier estimate in October 2021. They estimated a further dip to a startling 3.6% in April 2022, representing a significant decrease from its 2021 estimate of 6.1%. Broad inflationary pressures will likely remain high as global uncertainty levels remain elevated. The IMF predicted that in 2022, inflation rates would be 5.7% in advanced economies and 8.7% in emerging markets and developing economies, respectively. For the reasons mentioned above, these rates remain 1.8% and 2.8% higher than the January forecast. The June inflation print for the US of 9.1% y-o-y has come in as a warning that inflation rates remain sticky, and it might be a tad early to call its peak.
Even as we hope that some effects will be transitory, the next few quarters will be vital as economies emerge from these shocks. How sticky is inflation? Will recession become a reality? Will rates subside, even if gradually? Answers to these questions will provide a glimpse of what lies ahead.
India
Amidst the ongoing turmoil in global markets, India continues to perform reasonably well. IMF forecasted India’s GDP growth to be the highest among major global economies for CY22 and CY23. It is heartening to note that there are remarkable infrastructure-related improvements, including:
Increasing roads and highway construction, which acts as an indicator of their transformational impact on demand and labour markets.
Increased water tap connections and LPG penetration levels are a sign of better living standards for the bottom of the pyramid and enable more significant female labour participation levels.
Increased smartphone adoption and internet penetration levels have facilitated financial inclusion on the back of digitisation, positively impacting productivity and economic well-being.
The central bank appears to be on top of things as initiatives to keep a check on rising inflation and currency depreciation has shown results. India has fared far better than most economies in terms of currency management. Export momentum eased off in June, growing by 16.8% even as imports increased by 51%, resulting in a trade deficit of US$ 25.6 billion, mainly owing to higher oil prices. Foreign Direct Investment inflows continue to grow while Foreign Portfolio Investment came off further, totaling US$ 13.9 billion of outflow for the first half of the current year (H1 2022). INR continues to depreciate gradually against the US$ even as foreign exchange reserves have depleted US$ 47 billion since October 2021 and stood at US$ 594 billion. Export is an area where India delivered relatively well; manufacturing, the usual Achilles’ heel, has also shown robustness in addition to the typical ITES sector.
A dire need of the hour is for the government to push the pedal on infrastructure projects as commodity prices have started coming off their recent highs. A few state governments unable to spend on infrastructure during COVID lockdowns can now double down on it. With the Centre keeping its pace of spending and investing, the prospective boost to jobs and overall GDP growth can be meaningful. Although new project announcements reduced for the quarter ended June, the saving grace was the fall in the ratio of stalled projects to projects under implementation. Given lenders’ and borrowers’ strong balance sheets, there is no better time than now to support growth projects.
Early Stage Ecosystem
In H1 2022, the country’s startups have already received US$16.5 billion in funding across 994 funding rounds.
After a great first quarter, the Indian startup ecosystem, in keeping with all other asset classes, saw a slowdown in activity, attributable primarily to the ongoing geopolitical unrest and other aforementioned macro concerns. The average deal value dropped 20.3% (from US$18.7 million to US$14.9 million) as a result of the capital invested declining by 4.7% (from US$8.5 billion to US$8.1 billion). In comparison, the number of deal rounds increased by 19.4% (from 453 to 541). A recent CB Insights report shared that global funding to startups reached $108.5 billion in Q2 2022. This represented a 23% drop quarter-overquarter, the largest quarterly percentage drop in funding in nearly a decade. While the new funding level marked a 6-quarter low, it was still the sixth largest quarter for funding on record.
Even in this subdued environment, the picture was somewhat different for new unicorns, as 18 Indian startups joined this exclusive club in H1 2022 to take the total to 103. Q2 2022 saw the birth of 85 new unicorns globally, again a 6-quarter low and a sharp decrease from the 148 unicorns born a year ago in Q2 2021. In line with global trends, India put forth just four startups that achieved unicorn status in Q2 CY22. Even as the market peak is behind us and unicorns once again become rare to spot, the entrepreneurial spirit continues to thrive, owing to the country’s rising digital adoption and unrelenting innovation. India remains the third largest startup ecosystem in the world that has made its mark on the global technology stage as a serious contender.
For the sake of understanding, we split the technology ecosystem into three buckets: (i) late-stage firms, including listed entities, (ii) mid-stage firms, and (iii) early-stage firms. Data points out that the late-stage firms are the most affected in terms of valuations coming off and operations being reined in, followed by mid-stage firms. The early-stage ecosystem, our playground, is the least affected. We attribute this dichotomy to the fact that yesteryear’s buoyancy, and as many call it—insanity, did not benefit the early stage as much. Yes, some early-stage firms saw ridiculous funding at even more ridiculous valuations, but that was not the norm. Consequently, we are now able to deploy more capital to worthy early-stage firms at far lower valuation levels. Now appears to be the most strategic time to put money to work, and we are doing just that.
As we anticipate the funding environment stabilising in the next 12 to 18 months, we recommend companies use cash judiciously and ensure an extended runway. Any startup, regardless of its stage, would do well to maintain a careful eye on its core business and make sure that unit economics are moving in the right direction at the right pace.